Senate impeachment trial for Philippine VP Duterte a political numbers game: analysts

UPDATED at 11:37 a.m. ET on 2025-02-07

The trial of impeached Philippine Vice President Sara Duterte cannot be rushed and will only begin in June, the Senate’s president said, while analysts described it as a political numbers game likely to be shaped by upcoming midterm polls. 

With 215 signatures, more than two-thirds of the 306 member-House secured Duterte’s impeachment on Wednesday – the first time that a vice president has been impeached in the Philippines. 

Through the move, the lower house of the Philippine Congress sent articles of impeachment to the Senate, which is to try Duterte for alleged constitutional violations, plotting to assassinate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., corruption, and other high crimes. 

“We will neither railroad nor delay this. We will not be pressured by anyone. We will abide by the constitution,” Senate President Francis Escudero, who will serve as the impeachment presiding officer, told a press briefing on Thursday. 

If convicted, Duterte, a former political ally of Marcos and daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, will be removed as vice president and be perpetually disqualified from holding any office.

The upper chamber, however, did not have time to study the endorsed complaint as Congress went on a break ahead of the May mid-term elections.

“If the current senators constitute the impeachment court, I think Sara will be acquitted because there will not be enough votes to convict her,” Aries Arugay, chairperson of the Department of Political Science at the University of the Philippines, told BenarNews.

The Senate can start acting on the impeachment on June 2, when it resumes its session, until June 13, according to Escudero.

Escudero said the senators who will act as jurors would need to swear an oath while Congress is in session before they could convene as an impeachment court.

Escudero said the Senate secretariat would also have to verify the signatures on the impeachment complaint and review the trial rules, which will then have to be approved by the senators in plenary.

Escudero said that the House took time to process the impeachment complaints and that congressmen “cannot rush us.”

By June 30, half of the 24-member Senate composition will be changed, with the 12 winning senatorial candidates in the May election replacing those whose terms will expire.

“The impeachment case will likely be decided by the new Senate because the Senate is a continuing body,” Escudero said. He likened it to the situation in courts, where pending cases are taken up by new judges or justices.

A continuing body

A former Philippine Supreme Court spokesman and legal expert shared the same view.

“The Senate is a continuing body as half of them are still within their terms, so they can still function and discharge duties that the Senate alone can do such as trying an impeached officer,” Ted Te told BenarNews on Thursday.

“It looks like the trial will start only after the elections with new senators,” he said after the Senate ended its session without discussing the impeachment. 

A two-thirds vote of all senators is required to convict Sara Duterte, the tough-talking daughter of Rodrigo Duterte.

The Dutertes believe that the Marcos camp was behind the vice president’s political troubles. 

They had also accused Marcos, the vice-president’s running mate in the 2022 national elections, of reneging on a promise to protect Rodrigo Duterte from prosecution by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over the thousands of deaths in his war on drugs.

The vice president has so far kept quiet since Wednesday’s vote, although her camp said she was expected to address the public on Friday. Duterte had earlier denied any wrongdoing.

On Thursday, Marcos distanced himself from the impeachment against his former political ally. He said that as head of the executive branch of government, he could not have a hand in a process carried out by a co-equal branch.

He also denied advising his eldest son, Congressman Ferdinand Alexander Marcos, in endorsing the impeachment complaint against Duterte.

“The House is a collegial body. They decide as one. And that was what the House decided. He is a member of the House of Representatives,” the president said. “So, as a member of the House of Representatives, he has to do his duty. Whatever his opinions might be, he must do his duty.”

Congressman Marcos and the president’s cousin, House Speaker Martin Romualdez, were among the top House officials who endorsed the complaint against the vice president.

A political process

For analysts, Duterte’s impeachment is partisan politics, especially as she has expressed intent to run for president in 2028.

Sara Duterte is seen as a top contender for the 2028 presidential race, according to some surveys and analysts.

“While the impeachment is a significant case to uphold accountability for high-ranking public officials, one cannot rule out the underlying political assumptions that come with it,” said Don McLain Gill, a lecturer at the De La Salle University in Manila.

“If it would pass [the Senate], Sara Duterte would be barred from running for the 2028 national election, which would be a considerable setback for the Dutertes’ political ambitions,” Gill told BenarNews on Thursday.

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“I get the clamor for accountability, but the process is being hijacked by politicians,” said Arugay, the professor at the University of the Philippines.

With Duterte’s trial starting only after May, the impeachment will be an election issue, he said.

“This becomes a major electoral issue. Duterte has options on how to play it. She can play the victim and persecuted card,” Arugay said. 

For both Arugay and Gill, Duterte’s chances for conviction in the current, and possibly the next, Senate are slim.

“The Dutertes are likely to generate notable support from several senators, even those who were [running for reelection and] endorsed by President [Marcos],” Gill said.

Most aspiring senators in the House of Representatives did not sign the impeachment complaint against Duterte.

These include senatorial candidates and current House members Camille Villar and Erwin Tulfo.

Villar is the daughter of outgoing Sen. Cynthia Villar and the sister of Sen. Mark Villar, who will be among the judges in the impeachment trial. The Villars are allies of both former President Duterte and President Marcos.

Tulfo, the current frontrunner in pre-election surveys, said he did not sign the complaint against Duterte to ensure his impartiality should he become a senator-judge. His older brother, Raffy Tulfo, is also a sitting senator.

Gerard Carreon in Manila contributed to this report.

The story has been corrected to reflect that the number of lawmakers who endorsed the impeachment complaint against Duterte was more than two-thirds of the 306 members of the House of Representatives.