Japan’s new PM bolsters Tokyo-Southeast Asia ties amid China tensions, Trump’s return

Japan positions itself as a key regional stabilizer amid growing security concerns, potential U.S. diplomatic shifts, analysts said.
Jason Gutierrez
2025.01.13
Manila
Japan’s new PM bolsters Tokyo-Southeast Asia ties amid China tensions, Trump’s return Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba speaks to the media after conducting a three-way call with the leaders of the U.S. and the Philippines, at the prime minister’s official residence in Tokyo, Jan. 13, 2025.
STR/Jiji Press/AFP

Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba honed in on boosting defense and economic ties with Southeast Asia during a four-day regional trip, capping it off with a discussion with his Philippine and U.S. counterparts about Beijing’s “dangerous” maritime behavior. 

By going to Malaysia – the 2025 ASEAN chair – and Indonesia for his first Southeast Asian as PM, Ishiba sought to show that Tokyo was ready to be a force to be reckoned with amid a regional competition with China and as Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, analysts said.

Ishiba’s trip was meant to “reassure” allies in the region as the U.S. undergoes a political transition, Filipino security expert Sherwin Ona said. Japan’s foreign minister is also expected to visit Manila later this week. 

“I believe this is a strong message to the People’s Republic of China of strengthening cooperation among first island-chain nations,” Ona told BenarNews. 

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This image taken from video footage shows U.S. President Joe Biden (center, bottom), Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (upper left) and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. (upper right) during their trilateral telephone call, Jan. 13, 2025. [Philippines’ Presidential Communication Office (PCO) via AFP]

On Monday, Ishiba joined Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and outgoing U.S. President Joe Biden for a three-way phone call during which they discussed regional security and their countries’ “continuing cooperation” against the backdrop of tensions with Beijing in the disputed South China Sea.

Manila and Beijing, rival claimants in the sea, have faced off lately in high-stakes confrontations in contested waters. Tokyo faces a separate territorial challenge from Beijing in the East China Sea.

The call took place nine months after Marcos, Biden and Fumio Kishida – Ishiba’s predecessor – met for a trilateral summit at the White House.

“Together, the three leaders discussed trilateral maritime security and economic cooperation, as well as the People’s Republic of China’s dangerous and unlawful behavior in the South China Sea,” the White House said in a statement.

“The three leaders agreed on the importance of continued coordination to advance a free and open Indo-Pacific,” it said. 


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Ishiba talked about the importance of deepening “trilateral cooperation in a variety of fields, while Marcos said “substantial progress had been made in implementing bilateral and trilateral cooperation in areas of mutual interest,” according to the Philippine presidential palace. 

Biden, who will leave office next week, praised Marcos for his response “to China’s aggressive and coercive activities in the South China Sea.”

“I’m optimistic that my successor will also see the value of continuing this partnership, and that it is framed the right way,” Biden said of the trilateral alliance. President-elect Donald Trump will be sworn into office on Jan. 20.

Monday’s telephone summit happened just hours before the Philippines called on China to stop making “escalatory actions” at Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, and said it had filed a new protest over the presence of Chinese ships in waters within its exclusive economic zone.

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A China Coast Guard ship (right) deploys water cannon at a Philippine Fisheries and Aquatic Resources ship, the BRP Datu Pagbuaya (left), near Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, Dec. 4, 2024. [National Task Force for the West Philippine Sea (NTF-WPS) via AFP]

This month, China deployed two of its coast guard ships to the shoal that lies within Manila’s EEZ but is under Beijing’s de facto control.

“The escalatory actions of these Chinese vessels and aircraft disregard Philippine and international laws,” the Philippines’ national maritime council said in a statement. 

China maintains that the shoal is part of its territory.

“China’s sovereignty and rights in the South China Sea … are solidly grounded in history and the law, and are consistent with international law and practices,” Guo Jiakun, Beijing’s foreign ministry spokesman, said Monday.

Indonesia, Malaysia and ASEAN

In the days before the three-nation telephone summit, Ishiba visited Malaysia and Indonesia to bolster economic and defense ties. 

Malaysia is also involved in the South China Sea dispute but has opted for a non-confrontational dialogue with China. Indonesia, although not a party to the South China Sea dispute, has pushed back against China encroaching into its EEZ waters north of the Natuna islands. 

Malaysia has just taken up the mantle as 2025 chair of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), while Indonesia is the region’s largest country and economy. 

JP-SEA-diplomacy 4.JPG
Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba (left) and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto inspect the honor guards during a welcoming ceremony upon their meeting at the Presidential Palace in Bogor, Indonesia, Jan. 11, 2025. [Ajeng Dinar Ulfiana/Reuters]

On Saturday, Ishiba and Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto agreed on a host of economic and defense cooperation initiatives, with Tokyo pledging “high-speed patrol vessels” to enhance Jakarta’s maritime defenses.

Both leaders did not directly mention China.

“Indonesia seeks to maintain good relations with all countries and economic blocs, contributing to a climate that lowers tensions among great powers,” Prabowo said in a statement.

While in Kuala Lumpur on Friday, Ishiba discussed regional security issues with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim. 

Although trade and investment topped the agenda, analysts said Ishiba’s visit was also meant to garner support against China from Malaysia, the new ASEAN chair.

“As ASEAN chairman, Malaysia holds the ability to set the agenda and determine whether the region leans closer to China or the United States,” Azmi Hassan, a senior fellow at the Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research, told BenarNews.

“This role is critical in the current geopolitical landscape,” he said. “I see Japan as a nation that can effectively constrain or curtail China’s influence in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Southeast Asia.”

As Hassan sees it, the incoming Trump administration in Washington will likely “give minimal attention” to Southeast Asia.

“Japan will need to step in, whether in terms of economic ties, security, or bilateral diplomatic relations with ASEAN nations. Malaysia, being a prominent nation in this region, can set the tone for the organization – whether to be more aligned with the United States or to lean toward China,” Hassan said.

Iman Muttaqin Yusof in Kuala Lumpur and Pizaro Gozali Idrus in Jakarta contributed to this report.

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