Case against ex-minister seen as gauge of Indonesia’s democratic path under Prabowo

For many Indonesian democracy activists, a former trade minister’s upcoming corruption trial will test whether Prabowo Subianto, the new president, upholds the rule of law or uses legal mechanisms to suppress political criticism. 

They are concerned that the 53-year-old ex-minister, Thomas Lembong, a Prabowo opponent, was arrested and charged for political reasons. The Oct. 29 arrest came just nine days after Prabowo was sworn in as president. 

Who is Thomas Lembong: The former trade minister, popularly known as Tom Lembong, had backed an opponent of Prabowo in the 2024 presidential election. He was also an outspoken critic of policies of Joko “Jokowi” Widodo, Prabowo’s immediate predecessor who had backed his presidential run.

Lembong, who became known for reportedly writing some of Jokowi’s celebrated speeches, including the memorable 2018 “Winter is Coming” address that evoked the “Game of Thrones” TV series, will stand trial for corruption in a controversial sugar import case.

On Tuesday, a Jakarta district court rejected Lembong’s pre-trial motion challenging his arrest, and ruled there was sufficient evidence to bring him to trial nearly 10 years after his alleged offense.

Why the issue matters: Indonesia transitioned to democracy in 1998 after more than three decades of authoritarian rule. 

Jokowi, who served two terms as president until Oct. 20, was criticized for curbing opposition voices.

Some fear that stifling criticism of the government could worsen under Prabowo, a former general accused of human rights abuses during his time in the military. 

Democracy watchers see the case against Lembong as a potential bellwether for Indonesia’s democratic trajectory under the new administration. 

A Harvard graduate, businessman and former investment banker, Lembong served as trade minister under Jokowi in 2015-2016, and was his close ally until 2019. 

Former Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, in his 2020 autobiography, in fact credited Lembong as helping him build a close bond with Jokowi, The Sydney Morning Herald reported last month.

Lembong later turned into a fierce critic of Jokowi’s policies and towards the end of 2023 joined then-presidential candidate Anies Baswedan’s campaign team as “co-captain.”

Analysts believe Lembong’s outspokenness and his close association with Anies make him a target.

The charges: The attorney general’s office has accused Lembong of authorizing the import of 105,000 metric tons of raw sugar through a private company while he was trade minister (2015–2016), despite a domestic surplus of the commodity. 

This decision allegedly caused state losses totalling 400 billion rupiah (U.S. $25.19 million).

The attorney general’s office further claims that Lembong’s actions violated regulations stipulating that only state-owned enterprises could import the commodity.

Lembong said during a pretrial hearing that he had consistently consulted with then-President Jokowi on import policies, including those for sugar. 

The ex-trade minister’s lawyer, Ari Yusuf Amir, said the prosecution’s case lacked the foundation to move forward, and specifically questioned the source of the 400 billion rupiah number. 

What the pundits say: Political analysts note that Lembong’s arrest comes amid strong buzz about Anies launching an organization that will morph into a political party ahead of the next general election, with a key role for the ex-trade minister.

Anies is seen as the most viable presidential hopeful in the 2029 polls and Lembong, his right-hand man, is perceived as indispensable to him.

Ambang Priyonggo, of Multimedia Nusantara University, said the arrest suggests an attempt at weakening Anies’ candidacy by leaving him without his prime asset.

“I believe the political undertones behind Tom Lembong’s arrest cannot be dismissed,” Ambang said.

He added that other ministers who adopted similar policies as Lembong is being faulted for have not been investigated.  

“This certainly gives the appearance of a witch hunt,” Ambang told BenarNews.

He warned that selective enforcement of the law could fuel perceptions of Prabowo’s authoritarian tendencies.

A political analyst at the National Research and Innovation Agency, Poltak Partogi Nainggolan, concurred.

Limiting the investigation to Lembong risked damaging the credibility of Prabowo’s administration, he said.

“[A]ny facts that emerge must be acted upon, including the potential investigation of the other five trade ministers [after Lembong] who were allegedly aware of the questionable practices now labeled as corruption," he told BenarNews.  

 “The continuation of [Jokowi’s] repressive political and legal practices will only hinder the creation of an environment conducive to economic progress,” Partogi said. 

What the government says: Attorney General Sanitiar Burhanuddin dismissed claims that the case was politically motivated.

“There is absolutely no political agenda in the case of Tom Lembong,” he said during a parliamentary hearing on Nov. 13.

“It is purely a legal matter, and that is the basis on which we are proceeding.” 

What’s next: Lembong was ready to seek justice, he said in a handwritten statement published by the Indonesian media on Wednesday.

“I remain committed to uncovering the truth and upholding justice. I love Indonesia, and my determination to dedicate my life to this country is stronger than ever,” his statement said.

He just may seek inspiration from the Avengers, comic book superheroes referenced in another speech he penned for Jokowi, which the ex-president delivered in 2018 at a forum in Hanoi.