Indonesia’s Prabowo revives transmigration, deploys troops to Papua to ensure food security

Updated at 11:20 p.m. ET on 2024-11-19

In response to a question during a televised debate in December 2023, then-Indonesian presidential candidate Prabowo Subianto stated that he would send more troops to deal with an insurgency in Papua.

In office for less than a month, now-President Prabowo appears to be following through on his promise. The sparsely populated Papua region looms large on Prabowo’s economic and social agenda. 

Rich in natural resources, it is home to the world’s largest copper and gold mine. Papua’s pristine jungles have some of the largest quantities of hardwoods and timber in Southeast Asia. And the new president, who is determined for Indonesia to achieve food self-sufficiency, views Papua as the country’s rice basket.

Papua was the destination of Prabowo’s first official trip after his Oct. 20 inauguration. He visited a plantation in Merauke, where he was filmed driving a large rice harvester. This is a continuation of a food security program initiated by former President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo. 

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To be fair, the needs are real. 

Indonesia imported 3.8 million metric tons of rice in 2023, but during the first eight months of 2024 imports had already reached 3 million metric tons, a 121% year-on-year increase. Indonesia is set to smash through the ceiling of 3.6 million tons set by the national food agency, BULOG. In addition, imports of Russian wheat increased almost tenfold, from 168,000 tons in 2022-23 to 1.6 million tons in 2023-24.

And there will be more mouths to feed. While its population growth rate is only 0.7%, at 278 million people, the country is expected to top out at an estimated 355 million people in 2055. 

Like every president before him, Prabowo has promised food self-sufficiency, and Papua is the key to this.

The local Papuan community is concerned that to accomplish this, Prabowo will restart the transmigration policy of President Suharto, his ex-father-in-law, that had been halted in Papua since 2001. In essence, transmigration is a form of internal colonialism, and today, Papuans, comprise roughly 50% of the population. 

On Nov. 16, Transmigration Minister Iftitah Sulaiman said there would be no relocation of people from outside into the region, and instead authorities would focus on revitalizing 10 pre-existing transmigration centers in Papua. Still, the local community remains suspicious of the central government’s intentions. 

There already have been localized protests and community leaders have already announced large-scale ones against the policy. Nov. 15 brought protests in five cities in Papua where at least one was quelled with water cannon. 

The region has seen an increase in targeted violence. On Nov. 1, an Indonesian settler was gunned down and Papuan resistance forces have promised to increase their campaign of violence. 

Earlier, the military killed a civilian in the mountainous interior regency of Puncak Jaya on Oct. 25, which led to the retaliatory killing of a police officer days later. 

Prabowo, a former army special forces (Kopassus) general who had served in Papua, made clear that his counterinsurgency doctrine would not bend.

“If elected, my priority will be to uphold the rule of law and reinforce our security presence,” Prabowo said at the presidential debate last December. 

To deal with the surge in violence, Prabowo is literally flooding the zone with new troops to augment the 19,000 already deployed. In preparation for this, the military in May asked for a large budgetary increase for its Papuan operations, though leaders have not publicly provided details. 

In October, Indonesia’s military chief, Gen. Agus Subiyanto, established five new infantry battalions that would be deployed in Papua. 

They have been quickly deployed. On Oct. 24, 450 soldiers were deployed to Merauke in southern Papua. Since then, about 2,000 troops have been deployed and will provide security at a 2 million-hectare [4.94 million acre] food plantation being carved out of forests, savannah and wetlands in Merauke.

On Nov. 11, a new infantry battalion arrived in Manokwari, in West Papua. Days later, on Nov. 14, another battalion landed at the port of Nabire in Papua. 

The locations of these deployments are tied to large-scale food production. In all, about 2.0 million hectares of rice farms and sugar cane plantations are being developed on land that indigenous people claim as their own.

The military will play a leading role in developing the 1.0 million-hectare rice farm as part of its Bela Negara policy, which identifies food security as a core national security threat. Past land grabs and repressive measures against indigenous people have been key drivers of the Papuan insurgency.

It’s not just the deployment of fresh troops, but also a concerted revival of the military regional command structure (KOREM). 

A new military regional command headquarters was established most recently in Nabire on Oct. 29, as well as in Manokwari and Merauke, and beyond that, in Jayapura. This builds on the 2022 decision of the Jokowi administration to divide Papua into six provinces, up from two.

The government argues that this new structure will allow for better integration and coordination with local government units. The national police force just established a headquarters in the new province of Central Papua.

While the level of violence has ticked up in the past few years, it’s still relatively low. 

In 2023, there were 61 deaths, including 26 security forces, attributed to rebel actions. This year, the level of violence is down considerably. In the first five months of 2024, rebel forces killed only two soldiers and three police. 

As vociferously anti-colonial as Indonesia has been, it is nothing but colonial in its attitude toward Papua. Institutional racism, mistreatment of ethnic and religious minorities, media blackouts, internet shutdowns and policies that have long neglected the needs and interest of the local community have fueled a long-running insurgency that Jakarta has been unable to quell. 

The deployment of 4,000 to 5,000 additional troops, given their culture of impunity, land seizures and human rights abuses, could prolong the insurgency that is now in the hands of younger, more media savvy leaders. 

Food security may be Prabowo’s goal, but it likely will result in greater violence. 

Zachary Abuza is a professor at the National War College in Washington and an adjunct at Georgetown University. The views expressed here are his own and do not reflect the position of the U.S. Department of Defense, the National War College, Georgetown University or BenarNews.

This commentary has been updated to include correct information about military developments and food plantations in Papua.